Al Hilal are finally vulnerable and the rest of the SPL knows it

Al Hilal’s dominance over the Saudi Pro League has stopped being purely athletic and has become psychological. Teams walk onto the pitch at the Kingdom Arena already beaten. For the better part of three seasons, Jorge Jesus has engineered a relentless winning machine that simply suffocates domestic opposition.

The debate right now isn’t whether Al Hilal are the best team in Asia. They clearly are. The actual debate is whether their grip on the 2025-26 SPL title is finally starting to slip.

Go back to their record-breaking 34-match winning streak in 2024. That run was built on an incredibly solid foundation. Yassine Bounou organized the defense, Rúben Neves dictated the tempo from deep, and Aleksandar Mitrović bludgeoned center-backs to death in the box. It was functional, ruthless, and almost boring in its efficiency. They didn't need flashy tricks. They just needed the 90th minute to arrive so they could collect their three points.

But the 2025-26 campaign feels fundamentally different. The invincibility aura is cracking, and the reasons are entirely self-inflicted.

The Luxury Tax

Let's talk about Neymar. The Brazilian’s return to the starting lineup after nearly two years of intermittent injuries and false starts has severely unbalanced the squad. When Al Hilal tore through the league without him, they played with a fluid, high-pressing intensity. Malcom and Salem Al-Dawsari stretched defenses, tracking back furiously when possession was lost.

Now, Jorge Jesus is forced into awkward tactical compromises to accommodate a superstar who expects the ball to be delivered directly to his feet. The recent 1-1 draw against Al Taawoun perfectly highlighted this glaring flaw. Neymar drifted aimlessly in the left half-space, ignoring defensive duties while his full-back was repeatedly overloaded.

Al Hilal looked disjointed. They looked vulnerable. You cannot play a high defensive line with a passenger in the attacking third.

It places an absurd physical burden on Sergej Milinković-Savić to cover ground that simply shouldn't be his responsibility. The Serbian midfielder looks noticeably fatigued this season. The snap in his tackles is gone, and those late runs into the penalty area are happening less frequently.

The Wear and Tear

This brings us to the core issue: attrition. Al Hilal's core group has essentially played non-stop football for thirty months. They have navigated deep runs in the King's Cup and the AFC Champions League Elite alongside their domestic duties.

Ali Al-Bulaihi is finally showing his age. The dark arts and mind games that made him the league's most infuriating defender don't work when you are a half-step slow to the challenge. Opposing forwards like Moussa Diaby at Al Ittihad have figured out that you can simply run past him now. You don't need to engage in the shoving matches if you beat him on the turn.

And what happens if Mitrović misses time? The Serbian target man has masked so many creative deficiencies for this team just by out-jumping two defenders at the back post. There is absolutely no viable secondary plan. When they are forced to play through the middle against low blocks, the passing combinations are becoming entirely predictable.

The Goalkeeping Margins

Let's look at the margins at the back. Two years ago, Yassine Bounou was arguably the best goalkeeper playing outside of Europe. He bailed out the defense routinely. This season, his save percentage has noticeably dropped.

It isn't entirely his fault. He is facing significantly higher quality shots because the midfield screen in front of him is being bypassed too easily. Small mistakes are being punished. When your entire tactical identity relies on suffocating opponents and keeping clean sheets, a slight dip in goalkeeping form changes the math entirely. The opposition knows that if they shoot from distance, they might actually get a result.

And look at the squad depth. While the starting eleven remains intimidating, the drop-off in quality to the domestic rotation players is stark. You cannot rely on Salman Al-Faraj to play heavy minutes anymore. The younger Saudi talents breaking through lack the big-game experience required to navigate tight title run-ins. When the inevitable injuries pile up during the AFC Champions League knockout stages, Al Hilal will have to rely on a bench that simply isn't up to the standard of their starters.

The Chasing Pack

The rest of the SPL has stopped being terrified and started taking notes. Al Nassr have finally stopped relying entirely on aging European cast-offs and built a coherent midfield structure. Their recent tactical shift has allowed them to control games rather than just relying on chaotic transitions.

Al Ahli, armed with a deeper defensive rotation, are grinding out 1-0 victories away from home. Those are exactly the kind of ugly wins that secure championships. The gap in raw talent between Al Hilal and the other financially backed clubs has narrowed significantly. The margins are razor-thin.

Jorge Jesus knows this. You can see it in his increasingly erratic touchline behavior. The Portuguese manager is famous for demanding absolute perfection, but his system requires a level of physical exertion that his current squad is struggling to maintain. He is trying to squeeze another massive season out of a group that looks physically and emotionally drained.

The Final Verdict

Can they hold on? Probably. The sheer volume of individual talent in that dressing room is still unmatched in the region. Neves is still capable of pinging a 60-yard diagonal pass onto a dime. Mitrović still demands double-marking. They can play poorly for 85 minutes and still find a way to win.

But the era of total, unquestioned supremacy is over. Al Hilal are bleeding points in fixtures they used to dominate entirely. They are arguing with each other on the pitch. They look like a great team that is slowly aging out of its prime, burdened by the expectations of their own historic success. The SPL is a real title race again, and for the first time in years, the champions look genuinely worried.