ASA Show - MLS Small Sample Size Theatre
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Transfer rumors
Fabrizio Romano announced today that Mo Salah is leaving Liverpool at the end of the season. I would bet you a disgusting amount of money that his agent has spoken with San Diego. San Diego are owned by a very wealthy Egyptian guy; I think it's very, very plausible that that is a thing.
Atlanta United performance
I think Atlanta United are actually worse than this. Miguel Almiron has played really well, and you're never getting a stretch this good from him. He's 32 and he can't run anymore. It is dust that is going away.
MLS power rankings
I think the league is very tiered this year. There is very clearly to me an inner circle of four teams in Miami, Nashville, LAFC, and Vancouver who are like these guys are very clearly just better than everybody else.
DC United performance
I don't think anything about what DC United is struggling through on these points they're scraping together early in the year is actually going to be sustainable. I don't think they've got the creation.
Orlando City struggles
It's impossible for Orlando to continue to be this bad. They moved on from a lot of veteran, solid contributors for some new question marks across the board, most notably the absolute dog shit center back they signed from Brazil, Yago.
MLS team form
I think it is unlikely Minnesota will continue to be this bad. I look at the Galaxy who through five games have five points and a negative one goal difference off of an almost plus five expected goal difference.
MLS small sample size
I don't think San Diego is your expected goal difference team. I don't think Vancouver are going to be the best MLS team of all time. They're like a plus 10 xGD through five games, but they have destroyed basically everyone they have played so far.
ASA model performance
A professional gambler friend of mine was like, 'You talk up the ASA model, I'm going to test it out against the betting market,' and through five match weeks it has been very profitable.
Colorado Rapids tactical analysis
I think anytime a team in week one is dinking passes around in the box in Seattle, you're just like what are they doing? But I do think they have broadly looked significantly more competent playing through pressure. They actually keep the ball.
MLS statistical trends
Home field advantage in MLS has gradually declined in recent years. We've never really been able to pinpoint where home field comes from in MLS. I suspect that we will not have a historically large home field advantage season.
