When is Pep Guardiola expected to leave Manchester City?

Rumors stemming from a recent piece in the Mirror suggest that Pep Guardiola could potentially leave Manchester City following the 2025/26 season. While there is no official confirmation, his winding down contract has sparked widespread debate about who will eventually replace him at the club.

Why is Mikel Arteta considered a strong replacement for Guardiola?

Arteta is viewed as the closest thing to a second Guardiola because his tactical system blends City's positional play with solid defensive structure. Furthermore, he knows the club intimately from his time as an assistant manager there between 2016 and 2019, making him a seamless fit.

How much would it cost Manchester City to hire Mikel Arteta?

Prying Arteta away from Arsenal would require a significant financial outlay, as his current contract runs until 2027. Manchester City would likely need to pay a compensation package of £15-20 million, plus offer an annual salary well over his current £10 million.

What experience does Mikel Arteta have with Manchester City?

Before taking the head coaching job at Arsenal, Mikel Arteta served as an assistant manager at Manchester City under Pep Guardiola from 2016 to 2019. During that stint, he was instrumental in helping the club secure two Premier League titles.

How would Arsenal fans react if Arteta left for Manchester City?

If Arteta were to abandon the team he built at Arsenal to join their biggest rival, it would likely be viewed as a highly mercenary move. The decision would instantly elevate the Arsenal-City rivalry to unprecedented levels of toxicity and turn him into a villain in North London.

Pep's Exit? The Arteta-to-City Rumour That Makes Terrible Sense

Source Credibility: Tier 3 (Speculative)

This isn't a transfer rumour backed by Fabrizio Romano's midnight communiques. This is high-level speculation, the kind that ripples through the league after a single quote. The source is a May 19 piece from the Mirror, which focuses on Mikel Arteta's reaction to the possibility of Pep Guardiola leaving Manchester City after the 2025/26 season. While Arteta was non-committal, the very existence of the question has sparked a fascinating, if unlikely, debate: could Arteta actually leave Arsenal to take over from his mentor?

The Candidate Profile

Mikel Arteta is no longer just Pep's former apprentice. He is the man who turned Arsenal from a Europa League side into perennial title challengers. His tactical system, a blend of Guardiola's positional play with a more pragmatic defensive structure, has made the Gunners one of the most formidable teams in Europe. He is intense, meticulous, and has proven he can build a long-term project and connect with a fanbase. He is, in essence, the closest thing the Premier League has to a second Pep Guardiola.

However, the profile also comes with a critical flaw in this context. Leaving Arsenal, the club that gave him his first managerial role and where he has built a team in his own image, to return to City would be seen by many as a mercenary move. It would be a direct abandonment of his own project for a ready-made one.

Tactical Fit & The Domino Effect

The tactical fit is, obviously, perfect. Arteta knows Manchester City inside and out from his time as assistant manager from 2016 to 2019. He was instrumental in two of Guardiola’s Premier League title wins. His philosophy is a direct descendant of the City style, and the players are already well-versed in the principles he would apply. It would be the most seamless managerial transition imaginable at the super-club level. No learning curve, no system shock. Plug and play.

The real question isn't tactical, it's emotional and political. Would City's hierarchy risk poaching the manager of their biggest rival? Would Arteta risk becoming a villain in North London for a return to Manchester? The move would send shockwaves through the league, instantly elevating the Arsenal-City rivalry to unprecedented levels of toxicity.

Fee and Contract Estimates

This is where things get complicated. Arteta signed a contract extension with Arsenal back in 2024, reportedly running until 2027. To pry him away, Manchester City would need to pay a significant compensation package, likely in the realm of £15-20 million, similar to what Bayern Munich paid for Julian Nagelsmann. His salary would also have to be immense, certainly north of the £10 million per year he is currently earning at the Emirates. It's a huge outlay for a manager, but for the stability he would bring, City would surely consider it a bargain.

Competing Candidates

Arteta isn't the only name on the hypothetical list. If the biggest job in football opens up, every ambitious manager in the world takes the call. Xabi Alonso, fresh off his historic run with Bayer Leverkusen, would be a primary candidate. Germany's national team coach Julian Nagelsmann has long been admired by the City hierarchy. Even a wildcard like Zinedine Zidane could be considered. However, none offer the continuity and deep knowledge of the club that Arteta possesses.

Probability Assessment: Low, But Not Impossible

Let's be clear: this move is highly unlikely. Arteta is deeply invested in the Arsenal project. He has a young, hungry squad that adores him and a fanbase that has fully bought into his vision. Walking away from that, especially to a direct rival, seems almost unthinkable. 'Here we go' chance? Maybe 10%.

But it's not zero. The chance to manage a club with City's resources, to take over a machine built for winning, and to cement his own legacy by continuing Guardiola's dynasty is a powerful lure. The expected timeline would have to be rapid. Should Pep officially announce his departure at the end of the season, City would aim to have a successor lined up before the transfer window opens in June.

Expected Impact

If the unthinkable happened, the impact would be seismic. For Manchester City, it would be a masterstroke of succession planning, ensuring another decade of dominance under a manager who shares the club's core footballing DNA. For Arsenal, it would be a cataclysmic betrayal, potentially derailing their entire project and sending them back to square one. The Premier League narrative would be transformed overnight. It's a terrible idea for the health of competition in the league, which also makes it a fascinating, dramatic, and therefore, horribly plausible scenario to consider.